Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
